Election Picks '06: Getting Ready to Govern!

It’s the most wonderful time of (every two) years! Yes, it’s the midterm elections. This year, we have an extra added benefit: NOT LOSING. The Democratic Party, which in my lifetime has done just about everything it possibly can to lose elections, finally can’t screw one up. As we look forward to governing for the first time in 12 years, this cycle has been quite revolutionary. By my own count, no fewer than 11 seats in the Senate and 76 seats in the House were what I consider “in play” – that is to say that the recent polling is such that they are either toss up races or leaning ever so slightly to one side or the other. Having 30 House seats up for grabs is generally considered a lot. 76 is earth shattering. And, barring a major news event in the next 24 hours, the GOP is going to down one of its worst defeats since Watergate. Also, I have tagged some races as "Firewall Races." These are seats that a generally solid GOP strongholds but that have attracted media attention and extra money because of Democratic gains. These are races I consider bellwether districts which could tell the story of the Democratic landslide in 2006. So, as I sit here salivating over polling data, here is a write-up on races of particular interest.

SENATE

Massachusetts – D
Teddy Kennedy is gonna be pushing 50 years in the Senate soon. I like that thought.

Montana – D
Jon Tester makes every Democrat’s dream come true: winning a moderate seat back from the Republicans at the expense of one of their most powerful influence-peddlers.

Arizona – R
Firewall race. Hayworth (as I will talk about later) is in trouble which means every Republican except John McCain in Arizona is in trouble. Jon Kyl has managed to stay above the fray of the divisive immigration issue and I just have a really hard time imagining a man of his stature in Arizona politics and his influence in Washington losing even with the tide rising. However, if it looks like a landslide early in the evening across the country, Conservatives may desert him and he could be in trouble. Nonetheless, I still have this race in the GOP column.

Missouri – D
The Michael J. Fox ad had a huge effect nationwide and in Missouri in particular. You could not helped but be moved by this man, whom Americans have embraced as one of our best loved celebrities, clearly suffering at the ravages of a scary, largely misunderstood disease for which there may finally be hope of a cure. And you could not help but feel sick when the opposition trotted out those great men of science, Jeff Suppan and Kurt Warner, to speak for the anti-science, anti-progress Christian Conservative community and bash Mr. Fox for pleading with voters to not cut off avenues to an eventual cure for Parkinson’s. (Note: I am leaving Rush Limbaugh out of this discussion on purpose. His words were not even political discourse, just a sleazy smear attack, something he specializes in of course, but one which sank to even new depths.) In the furor that erupted after the ad, Jim Talent was left to scramble and consolidate support while not looking like a complete anti-progress buffoon, and Claire McCaskill will reap the benefit of his inability to do so.

Ohio – D
Mike DeWine, welcome to electoral oblivion. The NRSC pulled your funding almost two months ago. TWO MONTHS! You barely got out there after Labor Day, and the rug got pulled out from under you. Ohio isn’t just trending Blue this time around, it’s hemorrhaging GOP votes.

Pennsylvania – D
Rick Santorum is the biggest joke in American politics. His campaign was a punchline from the word go. I think Mark Foley could have moved to Altoona two months ago and gotten more votes than Santorum will. Bye Rick, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

Tennessee – R
Harold Ford needed to shut his mouth on the New Jersey gay marriage decision. I’m not angry about it because I disagree with him – and Lord knows I do – but because he looked like a political opportunist who tried to leverage an unpopular issue. And then he dropped 5 points in a poll taken two days later and he’s still sliding. That race has been over for a week, Bob Corker wins easily, might even get to 55% in a race that was deadlocked, or he was trailing in, depending on how you read the numbers, 96 hours ago.

Virginia – D
Mark Warner’s Presidential campaign won’t be the only one to end in Virginia this month. The Warner/Kaine GOTV machine is going to put Jim Webb over the top and end George “I am not now, nor have I ever been a racist…except for that time I used a slur at a campaign event and was basically in the Klan in college” Allen’s run at the presidency.

Rhode Island – D
Lincoln Chafee had to survive attacks from the left and right for the last year while trying to cobble together the center in Rhode Island. These are people who voted for Buddy Cianci. Twice. Including after he served time in prison. Chafee was always an outlier, a moderate Republican in one of the most staunchly, working class democratic states in the Union. Anger at President Bush and Chafee’s links to his administration will put Sheldon Whitehouse in the U.S. Senate.

Connecticut – I
The thought of Joe Lieberman returning to the U.S. Senate makes me almost violently ill. He claims to be a member of the Democratic Party, but he has become bosom buddies with the President just six years after he and Al Gore defeated him for the Presidency. Ned Lamont has run an awesome campaign, coming from nowhere to shock the Democratic establishment and Joementum out of the nomination for the first time in 18 years. But Lieberman has consistently shown himself to be a political chameleon, changing his colors from red to blue as the situation warrants. Unfortunately, this means Bush and Company’s favorite “Democrat” gets another six years in the Senate. You will notice I have not included Lieberman as a Democrat in the final tally. He has to prove he still believes in the fundamental values of my party before I put a D next to his name again. If he wants to be a Republican, fine. But he better prove himself if he wants to be a full-fledged member of my party again.
New Jersey – D
Menendez over Tom Kean, Jr. Race shouldn’t even really be in play, but Tom Kean is running on the goodwill of his father and his solid work with the 9/11 Commission.
Maryland – D
Cardin. Easy.

Final Tally:
D – 50
R – 49
I – 1

HOUSE

Massachusetts ALL – D
The Massachusetts Congressional Delegation thanks you once again for sending them back to Congress. Even Steve Lynch.

California 11 – D
Firewall Race. This district was redrawn after the Gary Condit fiasco some years back to include more Democratic areas around Stockton. Even though the area is fairly consistently Republican, bad internals forced the NRCC to drop money into the Sacramento media market a week ago to try and hold this seat. It’s starting to look like the ads backfired and the growing landslide coming from the east coast may keep conservatives at home and turn central California blue for the first time in a long time.

Arizona 05 – D
Firewall Race. J.D. Hayworth, until about a week ago, was one of the most recognizable, telegenic, and well-liked Conservative members of Congress. All of a sudden, he is within the margin of error to a relatively unknown Democratic candidate who is making hay off the now-marginalized illegal immigration issue and Hayworth’s inability to lead on the issue despite his vitriol and rhetoric on the issue. Instead of moving on legislation on the divisive issue, Hayworth and others used it for political gain and are now pushing it off the legislative agenda. Conservatives are deserting Hayworth in droves in response. This is another race in which the Democrats should benefit from GOTV and early gains, as even more Conservatives may decide to stay home. Don’t weep for Hayworth though, he will no doubt return to a very lucrative career in talk radio railing against the bleeding heart liberals. Only problem, we’ll be governing now…

Idaho 01 – D
Firewall Race. This race is a testament to how revolutionary this cycle truly is. The Idaho 1st is in play? Really? Yeah, really. People everywhere are looking for change, and good candidates like Larry Grant are stepping up to the plate and talking to people in plain English, about issues they really do care about, like Health Care, education, rural development, jobs, and the War in Iraq. Issues that can unite Americans, not divide them. (You know, I seem to remember hearing a phrase like that before somewhere…) The GOP strategy of division just isn’t going to cut it in the Mountain West anymore, or pretty much anywhere else in the country. People are tired of fending for themselves, they like their neighbors. Why not prosper together?

Wyoming AL – D
Barbara Cubin will lose this race because Gary Trauner, like Larry Grant, believes in fair government and a return to community values. Trauner also has a great campaign manager in Linda Stoval, a woman I worked with when I was Wyoming state director on the Dean campaign, and who was a great grassroots organizer, one of the best I worked with in fact. Also, CUBIN THREATENED TO SLAP A MAN IN A WHEELCHAIR. I just can’t make this stuff up.

Texas 22 – D
Tom DeLay’s old district goes blue as Delay gets ready to put on his orange jumpsuit. The voters here, while some of the most Conservative in the nation, will send a democrat to Congress thanks to DeLay’s reckless disregard for the American legal system and ethics in general.

Illinois 06 – D
The fact that anyone had the unmitigated gall to take potshots at Tammy Duckworth during this campaign was appalling. Of course, they did it to Max Cleland too, but this time it won’t stick and Henry Hyde’s old seat will be filled by a Democrat.

West Virginia 01 – D
Here’s an interesting one, a race with a Democrat facing ethical questions. Mollohan still wins this race, that’s how bad it is for the Republicans this year. Also, I don’t care what Jason Reifer says, no way Shelley Moore Capito loses WV-02.

North Carolina 11 – D
Heath Shuler does at the ballot box what he could never do in the NFL, win.

Florida 16 – D
Not even in the close comfort and total privacy of the voting booth will Floridians check off Mark Foley’s name on a ballot. I almost feel sorry for the Republican candidate in this race, who has to tell people to vote for an avowed child predator for Congress. But then I remember, they’re trying to govern.

Pennsylvania 07 – D
Curt Weldon, join Tom DeLay at the back of the line. Joe Sestak can thank the FBI and Weldon’s daughter’s dirty dealings for an electoral victory.

New York 03 – R
Firewall Race. If Peter King loses his seat early in the night (which is eminently possible with the hordes of voters coming out for both Hillary and Eliot Spitzer) it is going to be an even worse night for the GOP than we all could imagine. I still can’t bring myself to say he will lose, but it is a distinct possibility.

New York 19 – D
*SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT* Trippi and Associates fine advertising support of John Hall has helped him cobble together a slim lead going into the voting. Hall’s outspoken distaste for the Iraq debacle has garnered him a lot of support and should push him over the top and into Congress.

New York 26 – D
If there’s one thing worse than being Mark Foley this cycle, it’s being the guy who hid the child predator’s disgraceful and disgusting penchant for little boys from the American public. Tom Reynolds was that man. He was also the titular head of the National Republican Congressional Committee. It’s gonna be a bad night for him.

Connecticut 04 – R
Firewall Race. Chris Shays is in the same boat as Peter King. Moderate Republican, long-serving, well-liked. But we’ll see just how high the tide is rising early in the night.

Final Tally:
D – 244
R – 191
(D +41, 53 seat advantage)

GOVERNOR
Massachusetts – D
Deval Patrick FINALLY returns the Corner Office to the control of the Democratic Party. Patrick will make an outstanding governor for the Commonwealth and help right the ship in Massachusetts and return us to glory as the best state in the Union and a shining beacon of hope to the rest of the nation. Deval Patrick will also show his skills of walking on water, then turning that water into wine. But in all seriousness, he’s run a smart, principled campaign that connected with people on a fundamental level and he will make an excellent leader for the Commonwealth.

California – R
The people of the State of California are going to re-elect Arnold Schwarzeneggar governor of their state. Because once wasn’t embarrassing enough.

New York – D
Obama/Spitzer ’08? Is it too early to say that? … Please?